“For leaders there is an organizational responsibility to attempt to recognize our biases, or at least recognize the thinking traps that lead to biased conclusions. This is especially critical when it involves decisions about your people…”

In the early days of World War II in Europe, Great Britain stood nearly alone in the fight against Nazi Germany. Austria and Czechoslovakia had succumbed to Hitler without firing a shot in their own defense. Poland had fought courageously in September 1939 but were defeated in one month due to the overwhelming superiority of the German onslaught aimed solely at them. At the time of the invasion of Poland, Great Britain declared war on Germany. In early 1940, Britain fought the Germans without any true ally in arms since the United States was still almost two years away from entering the conflict. The Battle of Britain, which was almost exclusively fought in the air, quickly took a terrible toll on Britain in terms of lost pilots and planes. Out of necessity, the British Royal Air Force (RAF) began turning to foreign pilots who had escaped from their defeated countries. Polish pilots were among those who volunteered for this service within the RAF.

Reluctantly, the British military leaders formed the all-Polish 303rd squadron in the fall of 1939. From a cultural perspective, the British looked at the Poles as inferior even prior to the war. Geoffrey Marsh who was an RAF officer tasked with teaching English to Polish pilots, expressed a common opinion that Poland “was some one hundred years behind” and that “its inhabitants lived in a state of superlative ignorance.” The British leaders believed they had their suspicions confirmed by the quick loss of the Poles to the Nazis, thinking of them as feckless, inept, and lacking the will to fight.

During their training, the Poles were routinely given the worst sleeping quarters, transportation, training planes and other accommodations. The Polish pilots noticed these slights but quietly endured. As the air battle continued to take its toll, by August 20, 1940, the RAF was more than two hundred pilots short of what was needed for their defense. After a year of training in the ways of the RAF and the operation of the planes, the Polish pilots were given their first opportunity to fight at the end of August. From the first battle, the 303rd was recognized as one of the bravest, most effective squadrons in the RAF. In the six weeks of the Battle of Britain that they were a part of, the 303rd downed 126 enemy aircraft, which was more than twice as many as any other squadron during that time. They accomplished this despite flying the fighter plane (Hurricane) that was far inferior to the more modern Spitfire. An RAF squadron leader said of the Polish fighters “They are fantastic – better than any of us. In every way they’ve got us beat.” Many years later, Queen Elizabeth II expressed what most British came to believe: “If Poland had not stood with us in those days . . . the candle of freedom might have been snuffed out.” Due to heavy losses in the air, in October of that year Hitler changed his battle plan and scrapped the planned ground invasion of Britain. After fighting for many months without the aid of the Polish pilots, the British military leaders came to regret their reluctance to trust the Polish pilots and to put them in battle situations sooner. This was a classic case of not seeing past their blinders.

What is it that causes us to routinely misjudge others? There are many types and causes of judgment biases including the following.

Anchoring bias is the tendency to let the first thing we hear create an anchor that then drives all perceptions of the person or subject thereafter. In his book, Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman discusses the concept of anchoring at length. In an experiment to test the power of anchoring, visitors to the San Francisco Exploratorium were asked two sets of questions, each with its own high or low anchor.

Is the height of the tallest redwood more or less than 1,200 feet? What is your best guess about the height of the tallest redwood?

The above questions represented the “high anchor,” while the “low anchor” version used 180 feet as the suggested height of the tallest redwood. The two groups produced mean estimates that were vastly different, with the high anchor group providing a mean guess of 844 feet and the low anchor group a mean of 282 feet showing that the anchor was very influential in the respondents’ answers. By the way, the correct answer is 380 feet.

The availability bias is a cognitive bias in which we take mental short cuts for decision making based on similar or connected situations that come to mind. Often these similar situations are the most recent but may or may not be the most relevant for decision making. An example would be when an employee has a recent project that was completed later than expected, while several assignments earlier in the year were completed timely and successfully. If that employee’s annual evaluation comes after the failed project, it is likely to have an outsize effect on the evaluation. This is why it is often noted that professional athletes want to renegotiate their contracts after having a career-best year even if their contract has years remaining. They want to take advantage of the most recent information.

Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out and utilize information that confirms our existing beliefs. An example would be an emergency room physician near the end of a twelve-hour shift who has already seen three patients who were determined to be drug seeking and another patient presents with similar complaints. The physician orders tests with only drug seeking in mind and when they confirm his belief, he prescribes a mild pain killer and sends the patient home. The patient ends up having a much more serious issue that was not pursued diagnostically due to the confirmation bias.

These three examples are just a sample of the numerous ways that biases can affect our decision making. For leaders there is an organizational responsibility to attempt to recognize our biases, or at least recognize the thinking traps that lead to biased conclusions. This is especially critical when it involves decisions about your people such as team formation, promotions, terminations, professional development, and project assignments. It is equally important to be aware of how biases at levels above you can impact decisions affecting your status or future. It is a good personal initiative to anticipate these biases above you and develop strategies to mitigate them. An obvious situation when it is critical to make a good first impression is the job interview. It is a good interview tactic to consciously take a step back and see your presentation from someone else’s perspective. Practicing with a trusted mentor, coach or colleague and getting honest feedback can help to gain that proper perspective.

Kahneman admits in his book, “I am generally not optimistic about the potential for personal control of biases.” This is quite a statement from someone who spent his life studying how we think and make decisions. I am a bit more optimistic and believe that people can learn and become more self-aware. In the example of the Polish pilots, jumping to the wrong conclusions may have cost lives and certainly delayed the success of the RAF to blunt the onslaught of the German Luftwaffe. Hopefully, none of us has the responsibility to prevent “snuffing out the candle of freedom,” but if future success for ourselves or others is in the balance, when it comes to recognizing and seeing past biases, the reward is worth the effort.

 

References

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Olson, L. (2018). Last Hope Island: Britain, Occupied Europe, and the Brotherhood That Helped Turn the Tide of War. Random House Trade Paperbacks.